How America’s anti-urban bias distorts infrastructure spending

portsmouth bypass construction
portsmouth bypass construction

Crews prepare embankments for the Portsmouth Bypass project (courtesy of Midwest Energy News).

The relative struggle for power between urban and rural areas is a defining feature of the American political system, one that dates back to the founding of the country. In the immediate aftermath of the Revolution, the two dominant political theories were the urban republicanism of Alexander Hamilton and the agrarian democracy of Thomas Jefferson.

Hamilton’s ideas and biography are en vogue again, but the Jeffersonian push for agrarian power was enshrined in the Constitution. During the Constitutional Convention, small states successfully imposed the Connecticut Compromise, which created a bicameral legislature that included an upper house where every state would have equal standing. Thanks to this compromise, Wyoming – a state with 586,000 people – has the same power in the Senate as California – a state with five cities larger than 500,000 people.

Legislative proportionment and Baker v. Carr

Although rural areas unquestionably have disproportionate power on the federal level, it’s even starker at the state level. For a variety of reasons, rural voters tend to hold sway in state legislatures. One driver behind this outcome is gerrymandering, as typically Republican-dominated statehouses can draw districts in such a way as to enhance the relative power of rural and suburban residents.

The situation was actually worse prior to 1962. In that year, the Supreme Court issued its decision in Baker v. Carr, ruling that states need to continually update their legislative districts based on decadal Census data. This ruling effectively enshrined the principle of “one person, one vote,” which helped to somewhat level the playing field between rural and urban voters. But the situation has not been remedied. As I’ve said before, life is still difficult for blue cities located in red states.

Anti-urban bias in infrastructure spending

Recently I came across a great quote on this issue:

Ohio has practiced a rural and suburban philosophy that ignores big central city problems because those who run the state win their positions by soliciting the solid backing of farmers and small town residents.

I think this sentence encapsulates the current relationship between Cleveland and the State of Ohio quite well. Except it’s not a contemporary quote. This is actually from a speech (start at 17:00 mark) that former Mayor Carl Stokes delivered at the City Club of Cleveland on July 24, 1970.

Stokes spoke at a time when the State of Ohio showed no inclination to support the City of Cleveland. One year before the Cuyahoga River infamously caught on fire (for the 13th time) in June 1969, Cleveland residents passed a $100 million bond issue to upgrade the city’s water and wastewater infrastructure. The bond issue was necessary, because – six years after Baker – the State of Ohio refused to finance the improvements.

This imbalance remains today. Ohio actually spends more state money on its rural transit program than its urban program, despite the fact that 78% of Ohioans live in urban areas.

ohio transit funding 2000-2014

Transit funding, by program, from the Ohio Department of Transportation from 2000-2014 (courtesy of ODOT).

The bias towards rural areas also remains when examining spending on social issues at the state level. How many red states refused to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, for instance? Here in Ohio, while Governor John Kasich loved to brag on the campaign trail how he did expand Medicaid, he never seemed to mention how he only expanded food stamp allocations for rural areas, not cities.

But it’s possible to alter these types of social spending decisions in the short term. Governors and legislatures can pull the policy levers to increase welfare or education financing much more readily than they can build a new transit line in cities.

So what is it about infrastructure that makes it harder to influence, over the short-term, than social spending? What accounts for this inertia?

The ‘persistence of highways’

In a recent working paper (PDF), Stanford political science professor Clayton Nall and PhD candidates Simon Ejdemyr and Zachary O’Keeffe examine this issue. The study examines how the anti-urban bias in legislative apportionment affected the distribution of public goods before Baker. It also questions to what extent the case remedied this issue. As a proxy for public goods, the study considers the provision of federal-aid highway funding.

The authors identify two key mechanisms that explain the “persistence of highways” and that make highway spending less responsive to political change than social spending.

First, infrastructure clearly carries a sense of permanence. While the food that SNAP benefits help families buy may be gone a day later, a new bridge or highway will be fixed in steel and concrete for decades. Politicians are suckers for groundbreakings and ribbon cutting ceremonies.

Once these structures are built, there is typically tremendous pressure to maintain them. This is true even if the road or bridge outlives its useful life or if the cost of maintaining it outweighs the benefits. Like everyone else, lawmakers are subject to the sunk cost fallacy, which leads us to falsely believe that we need to keep investing time and money into projects or tasks, simply so that we don’t lose the time and money we have already spent.

Secondly, building infrastrastructure creates policy feedback. In other words, the development of the federal highway system gave rise to new interest groups that benefited from their construction. Construction and engineering firms directly benefited by winning state and federal contracts.

New infrastructure also creates what the authors call spatial policy feedback. New highways alter development patterns, facilitating the growth of suburban and exurban areas. In turn, these new suburban populations form powerful interest groups. Their support for and dependence on these highways becomes a self-perpetuating political force.

The unique persistence of highways is an important issue, as the framework for the federal-aid highway system was laid before Baker and was, thus, inherently anti-urban. In the Federal Highway Act of 1944, Congress explicitly barred the use of federal funds to build roads in communities with more than 2,500 residents.

While Congress altered its funding formula in 1956, it allowed rural-dominated state legislatures to influence the allocation of highway funding for decades. According to the authors, “state legislative malapportionment would have compounded already biased federal policies that limited states’ freedom of action to develop their urban areas, while promoting the biases within state legislatures.”

So, did the Baker ruling make a difference?

To examine how anti-urban bias within the political system may have affected the allocation of highway spending, the authors developed two models.

First, they compare each county’s portion of total highway mileage to its share of the state’s population. They then account for each county’s representation within the state legislature using the Relative Representation Index (RRI); a county with more political representation than its population should justify will have a score above 1, and vice versa.

To study the impact of the Baker ruling, they compare results from 1934-1960 to those from 1970-present. Per their results,

We find that legislative representation had approximately the same effect on a county’s share of state highway construction, regardless of region and urbanism. Second, and more importantly, we find that pre-Baker malapportionment had a persistently significant effect on highway-mileage bias in the decades after Baker. We find that representation mattered, but that it was the timing of the representation—prior to the construction of most of the American highway network—that dictated the distribution of highway infrastructure for decades to come.

According to this model, from 1934-1960, a one standard deviation increase in a county’s RRI score increased its share of highway-mileage spending by 0.3 standard deviations. While this number has been halved since the Baker ruling, the effect remains.

Second, the researchers compared the relative impact of Baker on both highway and social spending from 1972-20002; to measure the latter, they used state spending on public welfare and education. In this model, counties with higher RRI scores continued to see higher levels of state highway funding after Baker, even as they received less funding for welfare and education.

The implications of this study are significant. We live in an era of budget cuts and austerity. But, in a lot of ways, this crisis is political. The Ohio legislature could not be bothered to allocate even $1 million more for public transit, even as the largest transit system in state, GCRTA, muddles through a $7 million budget deficit.

Yet, while Cleveland residents brace themselves for fare increases and service cuts, Ohio has no qualms about spending $1.2 billion on the Portsmouth Bypass, which serves no purpose other than to let drivers avoid a few traffic lights.

As Ejdemyr, Nall & O’Keeffe conclude,

The current plight of American infrastructure – widely described as a “national infrastructure deficit” – is not a universal phenomenon but represents a long-term legacy of legislative malapportionment and decisions about infrastructure made before cities had equal representation in state legislatures. The poor state of American infrastructure is not merely a result of overall underinvestment, but stems from a historical legacy of unequal treatment that left some areas (notably cities) with a host of social and economic problems, including underfunded road infrastructure.

In an era in which people seem to be rediscovering the value of our center cities, we cannot afford to keep recreating the mistakes of our predecessors. Remedying the anti-urban bias in infrastructure spending will not happen overnight, but it’s well past time that we start.

Throwback Thursday: Cleveland held its first bike parade 100 years ago

cleveland bike parade
cleveland bike parade

Cleveland’s first Critical Mass-type event was held 100 years ago tomorrow (courtesy of the Cleveland Office of Sustainability)

May is an important time for cycling, as it is National Bike Month.

Throughout the course of the month, there are a number of celebrations and events. Sunday, May 1 marked the annual kick-off of the National Bike Challenge. Yesterday was Bike to School Day. Friday, May 20 is Bike to Work Day. And, as I already told you, this week is Air Quality Awareness Week, in which we are encouraging people to try biking in order to improve local air quality.

Well, it just so happens that 100 years ago this week, the City of Cleveland also helds its first proto-Critical Mass event. The City Division of Recreation organized a massive “bike parade” to the historic League Park on the city’s east side. The event reported involved more than 700 people, which is about the size of our contemporary, monthly Critical Mass rides.

Anyways, I just thought this was a cool little piece of trivia for what the youths call “Throwback Thursday.”

Why we should account for air quality when planning bike lanes

critical mass
A rendering of the proposed Cleveland Midway, a network of protected cycle tracks that would run across the city (courtesy of Bike Cleveland).

A rendering of the proposed Cleveland Midway, a network of protected cycle tracks that would run across the city (courtesy of Bike Cleveland).

In a lot of ways, cyclists get a raw deal. We ride a 25-pound machine on the same roads as people driving 2,000-pound steel boxes at high rates of speed. We struggle to carve out a small piece of the road, even as we get buzzed by passing cars or get screamed at by furious drivers who could kill us at a moment’s notice. There’s no such thing as a fair fight between a bike and a car. If I get into a head on collision with a careless driver, I lose.

Transportation people define cyclists (along with pedestrians, children, the elderly, and the disabled) as “vulnerable road users.” We are the ones most at risk of getting injured, or worse, in a collision.

For the most part, cycling and transportation safety activists have worked to try and bridge the yawning gap in safety between drivers and vulnerable users. So we push to implement road diets, to install bike lanes, to lower speed limits, to educate drivers and cyclists alike about road etiquette. And we do all of this, rightly so, in the name of safety.

The positives – and negatives – of cycling

Part of the impetus behind the push for improving bike infrastructure is the myriad benefits associated with active transportation, which I laid out in detail in my last post.

We all know the advantages of expanding cycling. It reduces wear and tear on roads. It improves safety for all road users. It helps promote vibrant neighborhoods and may increase retail sales. It can fight obesity and enhance public health. And it reduces local air pollution and helps tackle climate change.

But there’s two sides to every coin. We know that individual cyclists take a real risk each time they venture onto the road, even as the rise in cycling enhances safety for all. Could this same dilemma be true for air pollution and public health? The evidence seems to say yes.

Cyclists and exposure to air pollution

On the one hand, cyclists help to improve both local and regional air quality, full stop. Bikes are emissions free and every mile spent cycling rather than driving keeps roughly one pound of carbon dioxide (CO2) out of the atmosphere. The more people who move out of cars and onto bikes, the more we can mitigate transportation-related air pollution (TRAP) and reduce everyone’s exposure to its harmful effects.

it's a trap

Admiral Ackbar hates air pollution.

Yet, on the other hand, not every road user is exposed equally to TRAP. The specific characteristics of a vehicle can dramatically affect the levels of pollution that people riding in or on it can experience. We know, for example, that pollutants can concentrate inside of school buses, ensuring that children on board may be exposed to much higher levels of particulate matter and air toxics than they would otherwise. The same is true for heavy-duty truck drivers.

When it comes to drivers, however, that 2,000-pound steel box puts you at a significant advantage. Unlike cyclists, who have no air exchange buffer, drivers can roll up their windows and turn on recirculated air, lessening their personal exposure to TRAP, even as they produce it.

Multiple studies back this up. In a recent paper (paywall), Carlos Ramos, Humbert Wolterbeek, and Susana Almeida compared the exposure of cyclists and drivers to various air pollutants, using samples from Lisbon, Portugal. Though the authors found that drivers actually inhale five time as much carbon monoxide (CO) and more than twice as much CO2 as cyclists, respectively, the same was not true for other, more harmful pollutants. Cyclists were exposed to 30% higher concentrations particle pollution and ground-level ozone, on average.

As Ramos, Wolterbeek, and Almeida note, drivers tend to face higher concentrations of primary pollutants, like CO, because they remain in direct proximity to the pollutant source. Cyclists, in contrast, are able to limit their exposure to primary pollutants, but they breathe in much higher levels of secondary pollutants (ozone, PM2.5).

Exposure to pollution isn’t the whole story

It would be really consider convenient to end the discussion here and wash our hands of this whole issue. Drivers are exposed to higher levels of one type of pollution, while cyclists face higher levels of another.

But, like most things, this isn’t as simple as it can seem on the surface. The health effects of air pollution isn’t simply a product of pollution levels. Rather, it’s a function of concentration, length of exposure, extant health status (e.g. is the person elderly or asthmatic), respiratory rate, and inhalation route (nose or mouth).

When you account for these factors, the deck becomes decisively stacked against cyclists. Because cyclists spend more time on the road (due to their slower speeds) and breathe more heavily, they inhale higher levels of pollution in nearly every instance.

How cyclists can reduce their exposure to pollution

Now, there are steps that cyclists can take, at least in theory, to reduce their exposure to TRAP. Much like a cyclist can reduce his/her chances of being hit by using off-street paths or side streets, s/he can alter the amount of pollution inhaled by changing routes.

A group of scientists, headed up by Nathan Good from Colorado State University, explored this issue in a study published last fall. They selected a group of 8 commuters (4 bike, 4 car) in Fort Collins and equipped each of them with portable air monitors to document their levels of exposure along their daily commutes.

They found that, on average, cyclists were exposed to 18% more black carbon (a particular harmful component of TRAP) and 25% more PM2.5. Because cyclists spent more time commuting, the actually inhaled 92% more black carbon and 96% more PM2.5.

But Good et al. also found that cyclists could reduce these numbers by shifting to alternate, lower trafficked routes. Cyclists who used these roads less traveled actually took nearly one-quarter less black carbon.

critical mass

Cleveland Critical Mass in July 2015 as seen from my bike.

That said, there are some real issue with this study’s implications. Some people (including me) don’t have a viable, less trafficked route we can follow to work. Additionally, this approach shifts the responsibility for avoiding pollution intake from the public sector (policy makers, urban planners) to the individual cyclist. That’s a crappy way of doing things.

Including air pollution when planning bike lanes

Fortunately, additional research provides at least a partial answer.

In a 2014 study, Piers MacNaughton and colleagues looked at (paywall) how different types of bike routes affected TRAP intake among cyclists in Boston. They compared pollution levels along bike paths (those separated from vehicular traffic) and on-road bike lanes.

Unsurprisingly, the authors found that cyclists experienced significantly lower levels of air pollution while using off-road bike paths. But set that aside for now.

The important findings of this study are related to particular components of bike infrastructure. MacNaughton et al. found that two bike lane variables – vegetative cover and the number of intersections – significantly affect TRAP intake among cyclists.

Reducing the number of intersections a cyclist has to cross not only cuts his/her travel time, it also limits the number of idling vehicles s/he will face. And increasing the amount of vegetation between cars and cyclists can help slash pollution levels, as plants filter out a variety of air pollutants. According to the authors, a one unit increase in vegetative cover lowers black carbon and nitrogen dioxide levels by 3.4% and 11.6%, respectively.

As the authors conclude,

Cyclists can reduce their exposure to TRAP during their commute by using bike paths preferentially over bike lanes regardless of the potential increase of traffic along these routes. Based on these results and the relevant cyclist safety literature, urban planners should push for the development of bike paths instead of bike lanes whenever possible and should design bike paths with vegetation between the cyclists and the vehicle traffic.

Redefining the “vulnerable” in vulnerable road users

With all this in mind, the concept of “vulnerable road users” takes on a new meaning. Cyclists are not only at a greater risk of being injured or killed in a collision, we are also at a heightened risk of suffering the ill effects of TRAP.

Planners must start taking this into account. Bike infrastructure that may make sense from a safety standpoint may not hold up when we account for air pollution. And don’t get me started on vehicular cycling advocates. Cleveland’s decision to design bike lanes that buffer the curb already made no sense from a safety perspective. When you add air quality to the equation…?

Other projects seem to make more sense, in contrast. Both the Midway and the Eastside Greenway place vegetative buffers between cyclists and traffic. This feature provides a double dividend, as they would improve safety and help reduce pollution levels.

Ultimately, it’s time to broaden our horizons on bike infrastructure. Just as we shouldn’t expect indicidual cyclists to bear the risk of being run over to improve road safety, so too shouldn’t we expect cyclists to inhale poison so the rest of us can breathe cleaner air. Let’s start accounting for air pollution exposure and intake when planning bike lanes.

Increasing mode shift is a great tool for improving air quality, public health

bike ferdinand
bike ferdinand

My trusty 2012 Trek FX 7.3, Ferdinand. Yes, like Magellan.

If it’s the first week of May, that can only mean one thing! No, not May Day. No, not Star Wars Day. No, not Cinco de Mayo. No, not Mother’s Day. Look, clearly you’re not going to get this on your own.

That’s right – it’s Air Quality Awareness Week. The U.S. EPA has designated this year’s theme as “Show How You Care About The Air.” EPA and various other government entities that work on air quality, including NOACA, are encouraging people to take a few simple steps throughout the course of the week that can have a positive, tangible impact on air quality.

One of these actions is changing your commute mode. The overwhelming majority of Americans (76.4% in 2013, to be exact) drive alone to work. Here in Northeast Ohio, that number is significantly higher, with values ranging from 79.9% in Cuyahoga County to 87.9% in Lake County. If you total the five counties in the NOACA region, 772,262 of the 938,244 workers over the age of 16 – 82.3% – drive alone to work. Given that transportation accounts for a significant portion of key pollutants in the region – 50% of nitric oxides (NOx) and 15% of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) – reducing the share of single-occupancy vehicles (SOV) on the region’s roads has the potential to improve air quality.

The question becomes by how much. While active transportation undoubtedly holds the potential to cut mobile emissions, some research suggests its immediate impact is somewhat limited. As I’ve shown, increasing overall fuel economy can do more to mitigate climate change than land use planning.

Moreover, research from the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) shows that bike and pedestrian are not the most cost-effective way to cut emissions. According to the agency’s analysis of projects funded through the Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality Improvement Program (CMAQ), active transportation lowers emissions far less, per dollar spent, than diesel vehicle retrofits, truck stop electrification, or idle reduction projects. This may help to explain why bicycle and pedestrian projects accounted for just 7% of CMAQ funding in FY2013.

Short trips and cold starts

On the aggregate, it’s likely true that, at least in the short-term, retrofitting diesel engines in heavy-duty vehicles or reducing the amount of fuel that truck drivers use overnight may be a more effective way to cut emissions. But personal vehicles account for a much larger share of mobile emissions, and a significant share of these emissions come from short trips.

According to the 2009 National Household Transportation Survey (NHTS), the median distance of a light-duty vehicle trip in the U.S. was just four miles; nearly half of all personal trips (43.4%) were less than 3.2 miles. These short trips account for an outsized share of vehicle emissions due the issue of cold starts.

A cold start occurs when both the car engine and its catalytic converter have cooled to within 10℉ of the ambient air temperature. In order for an engine to operate at peak efficiency, it needs to warm to roughly 140℉. Until it reaches this point, the vehicle will fail to fully combust gasoline, ensuring that it releases emissions at a higher rate.

One recent study (PDF) notes that cold engines can emit four times as many hydrocarbons, three times as much carbon monoxide (CO), and twice as much NOas a warm engine. All told, the authors conclude that excess emissions attributable to cold starts account for 10-30% of total mobile emissions.

The benefits of mode shift on a national scale

Given these facts, it appears that shifting travel mode for short trips could go a long way to improving air quality. Additional research backs up this hypothesis.

In a 2010 article (paywall) in the journal Transportation Research Part D, Audrey de Nazelle and her colleagues examined the benefits of shifting short vehicle trips to active transportation. While their travel data were older (they used the 1995 NHTS), they found that 62.5% of all trips less than 0.5 miles occur in cars. This share that climbs to 87.1% for 0.5 to 1-mile trips, 92.2% for 1- to 2-mile trips, and 94.3% for 2- to 3-mile trips.

The authors examined the effects of shifting 35-70% of short social trips and 15-45% of commutes, respectively, from driving to active transportation. Nationwide, this mode shift would cut daily VOC emissions by 30-70 tons, CO emissions by 400-900 tons, and NOx emissions by 15-35 tons. It would also reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by 0.8-1.8%, cutting greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) by 20,000-46,000 tons per day. They compared these results to emissions reductions from existing CMAQ projects, finding that promoting widespread mode shift for short trips could lead to emissions reductions that were “orders of magnitude greater.”

How can mode shift improve air quality and public health in Cleveland?

But that study looks at the U.S. as a whole. I often hear people from people that the weather in Northeast Ohio is too harsh, making it impossible to walk or bike for 6-9 months a year. The deck is also stacked heavily towards driving in this region, as our SOV mode share attests. Are national estimates really applicable here? Surely things are different here than in Portland or Austin or San Diego.

Fortunately, a group of researchers from the University of Wisconsin-Madison already considered this issue. In a 2012 study, they analyzed the impact of replacing half of all vehicle trips less than four kilometers (2.4 miles) with biking in the 11 largest metropolitan areas in the Midwest, including Cleveland. And they assumed this mode shift would only occur during cycling season, which they defined as April-October.

The authors estimated that eliminating these short car trips would slash residential vehicle use in these cities by one-fifth. This outcome would reduce the frequency of cold starts from 59.9% to 21.9% in urban Census tracts and from 55.6% to 20.3% in suburban tracts. Across the entire study area, PM2.5 concentrations would fall by 1-2%, while NOx and VOC levels would fall by 5-12% and 10-25, respectively.

Based on their findings,

Eliminating short car trips and replacing 50% of them by bicycle would result in mortality declines of approximately 1,295 deaths per year, including 608 fewer deaths due to improved air quality and 687 fewer deaths due to increased physical activity…We estimate that the combined benefit from improved air quality and physical fitness for the region would exceed $8.7 billion/year, which is equivalent to about 2.5% of the total cost of health care for the five midwestern states in the present study.

Here in Cleveland, PM2.5 values would fall by 0.05 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m3), preventing 53 premature deaths, 184 asthma attacks, and 1,405 lost workdays per year. The additional physical activity would save another 42 lives per year, increasing the total benefits to $664 million annually.

And these numbers don’t account for the health benefits of increased physical activity. That prevents another 687 premature deaths and provides $3.8 billion in total benefits each year. This mode shift would further reduce GHG emissions by 3.9 billion pounds.

Clearly, the air quality benefits cities can obtain by promoting mode shift for short trips are significant. While mode shift, on its own, cannot bring every city into attainment for air quality standards or halt climate change, it is an important component of a comprehensive approach to both issues. Increasing the mode share of active transportation can produce additional dividends, as it benefits public health, enhances the livability of neighborhoods, improves safety for all road users, and just generally elevates the quality of life in communities around the country.

So show you care about air quality this week and take shorter trips on foot or by bike. Even if the weather isn’t perfect, it will be well worth it.

Go hug a tree. You just might live longer.

edgewater willow tree
edgewater willow tree

The iconic willow tree at Edgewater Park (courtesy of Francis Angelone).

Once upon a time, Cleveland was the Forest City. When Moses Cleaveland arrived to survey Connecticut’s Western Reserve in 1796, the area was heavily forested. It was said that a squirrel could travel from the Atlantic Ocean to the Mississippi River without ever touching the ground.

These days, only the moniker remains. We still have Forest City Enterprises, Forest City Brewery, Forest City Portage, etc. The trees? Not so much.

According to Cuyahoga County’s Urban Tree Canopy Assessment, just 19.2% of the city remains forested. Nearly all of the trees that existed during Cleaveland’s trip to the city that (largely) bears his name are gone today. In 1946, city officials identified 150 trees that likely existed in 1796. When the city updated this inventory in 1975, just 92 remained; of these, only 15 still had the plaques that were installed in 1946.

cuyahoga county tree canopy by community

The existing tree canopy, by community, in Cuyahoga County (courtesy of Cuyahoga County Planning Commission).

Only two of Cuyahoga County’s 59 communities have less tree cover than Cleveland, and the city lags behind comparable cities, including Cincinnati (38%) and Pittsburgh (40%). According to projections, unless Cleveland reverses this trend, its tree canopy will fall to just 14% by 2040. This would represent a loss of 97 acres of urban forest annually over the next 25 years.

When you consider some of Cleveland’s pressing challenges – a 56% child poverty rate, violent crime, population loss – the number of trees within city limits may not seem like a big deal. But we cannot consider the city’s environmental challenges as distinct from its general urban challenges; they are intrinsically connected. Our tremendous urban struggles exacerbate our environmental issues, including tree cover, and these environmental issues subsequently compound these broader issues.

Cleveland’s trees are terrific

When I think about trees, my mind immediately goes to that strangely catchy 1970s commercial from the National Arbor Day Foundation:

And it’s true, trees are terrific. In fact, they’re freaking incredible. But, as the singing cardinal in that commercial indicates, sometimes we take for granted the best things ever planted.

For many Clevelanders, trees may seem like more of a hassle than they’re worth. They produce tons of leaves, fruit, and sap that coats lawns and clogs gutters. They can damage sidewalks. Their roots may get into water and sewer pipes. They may fall in a storm and damage your property or that of a neighbor.

But the costs of trees only outweigh their benefits when we fail to account properly for the latter. Fortunately, the City of Cleveland and a number of partner organizations have placed  a price tag on the myriad benefits that our trees provide in The Cleveland Tree Plan (PDF), which was released last October.

Utilizing the U.S. Forest Service’s i-Tree model, the document estimates that the city’s trees provide more than $28 million in ecosystem services each year. Cleveland’s trees intercept 1.8 billion gallons of rainwater, which helps to mitigate our ongoing challenges with flash flooding. The trees shade homes, lowering energy costs by $3.5 million each year, as well as increase property values by $4.5 million. They also play an important role in mitigating climate change, as they remove 42,000 tons of carbon dioxide per year.

In the plan’s appendices (PDF), which you have to be a massive nerd like me to read, the Tree Plan actually lays out these ecosystem services by neighborhood. As the table below shows, there is a clear overlap between the extent of a neighborhood’s tree canopy and a host of other issues, including energy costs, asthma rates, and property values. The correlation between a neighborhood’s tree canopy and its urban heat island risk, for instance, is extremely strong (0.7609) and statistically significant (p < 0.0001).

cleveland tree benefits by neighborhood

The tree canopy and related statistics in each of Cleveland’s neighborhoods (courtesy of City of Cleveland).

Trees and mortality rates

On its surface, all of this makes sense. It’s fairly obviously that trees filter out air pollution, mitigate stormwater runoff, store carbon, beautify neighborhoods, and shade homes. But trees can do so much more, including extend your lifespan.

A recent study in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives examines the relationship between “greenness,” a measure of vegetation cover (including trees) and mortality rates among a cohort of female nurses in the U.S. The researchers, led by up Dr. Peter James from the Harvard School of Public Health, utilized satellite images to measure the amount of vegetation within 250 and 1,250 meters of each woman’s residence. The 250-meter diameter represented the vegetation directly accessible from each woman’s home, while the 1,250-meter buffer accounted for vegetation within a 10- to 15-minute walk.

The authors considered four main pathways through which exposure to vegetation can affect mortality rates: physical activity, air pollution, social engagement, and mental health. They also controlled for a range of potentially confounding factors, including race/ethnicity, smoking status, socioeconomic status, region, and whether the person lived in a urban area.

According to James et al., higher levels of “greenness” significantly lowered mortality rates among the women in the study cohort.

Analyses showed a consistent relationship between higher greenness and decreased mortality that was robust to adjustment for individual- and area-level covariates. In fully adjusted models, those living in the highest quintile of cumulative average greenness in the 250m area around their home had a 12% lower rate of mortality compared to those in the lowest quintile. Results were consistent for the 1,250m radius, although the relationship was slightly attenuated.

Greater exposure to vegetation significantly reduced mortality rates from cancer, respiratory disease, and kidney disease by 13%, 35%, and 41%, respectively. Of the four pathways studied, the effects were greatest for mental health and social engagement, though “greenness” also reduced mortality related to fine particulate matter and a lack of physical activity.

Based on their research, James et al. conclude,

[T]hese findings suggest that green vegetation has a protective effect, and that policies to increase vegetation in both urban and rural areas may provide opportunities for physical activity, reduce harmful exposures, increase social engagement, and improve mental health. While the recognized benefits of planting vegetation include reducing wastewater loads, sequestering carbon, and mitigating the effects of climate change, evidence of an association between vegetation and lower mortality rates suggests a potential co-benefit to improve health, presenting planners, landscape architects, and policy-makers with an actionable tool to grow healthier places.

Clearly, city officials should work to expand urban tree canopies in order to mitigate the myriad social, environmental, and health issues that plague cities like Cleveland. Fortunately, Cleveland has taken the first step on this road with the release and adoption of its tree plan. Hopefully we can work together to expand the city’s tree canopy in order to tap into the numerous benefits that trees provide.

Maybe the next time you look out your window at your tree lawn, you will see the tree standing there in a different light. It’s time we appreciate and better care for our trees in Cleveland. They just might extend your life.

On LGBT issues, Cleveland needs to get its house in order first

gay games cleveland
gay games cleveland

Downtown Cleveland decked out in rainbow lights after the Opening Ceremonies of the 2014 Gay Games.

Last week, PayPal announced it was scrapping plans to expand its operations in North Carolina. The company’s decision to call off its $3.6 million expansion in Charlotte, which would have created 400 jobs, came in reaction to a despicable (and almost certainly unconstitutional) law that Republican Governor Pat McCrory signed into law on March 23.

The bill, which bars municipalities from extending non-discrimination protections to LGBT individuals, particularly targets transgender residents by requiring that they use the bathroom that corresponds to the sex listed on their birth certificates.

While Gov. McCrory sought to tamp down some of the controversy this week by issuing an Executive Order “clarifying” the bill, it amounts to little more than putting lipstick on this proverbial pig. As David Graham of The Atlantic notes, all public buildings will still enforce the draconian bathroom restrictions on transgender individuals, and the state still precludes any effort to prohibit anti-LGBT discrimination by private entities.

PayPal was just the latest in a series of groups that decided to pull out of North Carolina in the aftermath to this law. Deutsche Bank froze plans to hire 250 people in the state, and entertainers including Bruce Springsteen cancelled their performances.

All of this gets to a larger debate about the impacts of these types of boycotts. There is no doubt that applying economic and political pressure on states in response to such acts of blatant discrimination is an important tool – one that has worked on a number of occasions.

These sorts of boycotts can also have unintended consequences. For one, they may drive supporters of these bills to simply dig in their heels against outside pressure. More importantly, they may harm innocent people living within these states (including LGBT individuals) who oppose such laws. Blue cities, like Charlotte and Raleigh, already chafe under the control of GOP-dominated state legislatures. Economic boycotts of this sort might punish them further for policies they ardently oppose.

This should be readily apparent to those of us in Cleveland, a deep blue city stuck in an (artificially) bright red state.

But the tone deaf political and business leaders of Northeast Ohio completely missed this point. Following PayPal’s announcement, a group of leaders, including Cuyahoga County Executive Armond Budish, sent a self-congratulatory letter to CEO Daniel Schulman. In the letter, Budish et al. commend Schulman and his company for their progressive values, noting that “the City of Cleveland shares those same values.”

The letter highlights the fact that Cleveland is, in many ways, quite progressive on LGBT equality. Both the City and Cuyahoga County governments extended benefits to same-sex couples prior to the Supreme Court’s decision in Obergefell v. Hodges. The administration flies the pride flag above City Hall each year during Pride Week. And, of course, we hosted the 2014 Gay Games, which I helped plan and execute.

pride flag cleveland

The pride flag flies above Cleveland City Hall in June 2014.

But, in their haste to sell the Cleveland Renaissance narrative, Budish et al. end up coming off as too cute by half.

The authors completely ignore a number of important details. First, Republicans rammed this legislation through the North Carolina legislature as a direct response to a law passed by Charlotte’s City Council. That bill extended nondiscrimination protection to LGBT residents and required that all public and private entities allow transgender people to use the bathroom that matches their gender identities. PayPal is not leaving Charlotte because the city does not “share its values,” but because state leaders went off the deep end to legislate against those values.

Second, Budish et al. conveniently ignore that Cleveland City Council failed to pass exactly this same type of legislation last year. While Charlotte leaders stood up for their constituents, transgender Clevelanders had to listen as members of Council and the local media evoked the bullshit specter of transgender predators invading bathrooms around the city. As a bill opponent said, with a straight face, that “the most discriminated against group of people in this country…is not transgender people or gay people, it is people of faith.” As Plain Dealer editorial board members claimed allowing them to use the bathroom could “create a fertile environment for predators to strike.”

But the reality that transgender Americans are nearly twice as likely to be the victims of a sexual violence as cisgender Americans did not win the day. The fact that three transgender women were murdered in this city in less than a year did was not enough. No, the hatemongers peddling their lies on the pages of the PD made sure the bill never even got a vote.

Third, unlike North Carolina, the State of Ohio has no protections in place for LGBT residents. A gay person can still be legally fired for being gay; a lesbian can still legally be evicted for being a lesbian. In the wake of Gov. McCrory’s Executive Order, North Carolina is now more progressive than Ohio on this front, for government employees at least.

Moreover, the only way for a transgender person to guarantee access to services and accommodations that match their gender identity in states like Ohio and North Carolina is for them to go through the absurdly arduous process of getting a new birth certificate issued. Except, you cannot actually do that in Ohio at all, because this is one of just three states that refuses to issue updated birth certificates to transgender residents.

There is no question that Cleveland is a fairly welcoming place, regardless of one’s gender identity or sexual orientation. The week of the Gay Games was an incredible experience specifically because of the way that Clevelanders graciously welcomed LGBT people from around the world with open arms. I will never forget seeing a Cleveland police cruiser with a rainbow flag bumper sticker parked outside of the Convention Center.

But none of this does away with the truth that we still have an awful lot to do in order to ensure that LGBT Clevelanders are guaranteed their equal rights. I just wish that our leaders would spend more time working on this and less time patting themselves on the back.

Cincinnati is using parking revenue to fund transit. Why can’t Cleveland?

cincinnati streetcar
cincinnati streetcar

The Cincinnati Streetcar takes a test run in November 2015 (courtesy of Wikimedia Commons).

In my last post on using parking taxes to fund transit in Cleveland, I exclusively focused on private, off-street parking lots, largely due to space and for the sake of a coherent argument. Unfortunately, this meant that I left out the other side of the equation – how to properly manage public parking lots in response.

One of the potential consequences of increasing private parking fees is to increase the relative demand for public parking lots and on-street parking. While there is a long-standing tradition of having the public sector provide certain services at a lower cost than their private sector counterparts (e.g. electricity), the social costs of ubiquitous, cheap (or free) parking are so substantial as to overwhelm its potential benefits.

Accordingly, the first step towards instituting the parking tax policy I proposed is for the agencies that own and operate public parking lots and meters to raise their prices to market rates. Not only does this mitigate the risk that people will simply move from more expensive private lots to cheaper public lots, it may also increase the odds that commercial parking lot operators will go along with this tax proposal. As Todd Litman of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute wrote (PDF), “Commercial operators tend to be more accepting of a parking tax if governments are already maximizing income from other parking-related revenue sources, such as meters and enforcement of parking regulations.”

Coincidentally, Cincinnati has done just this. As part of a plan to modernize its parking system last year, Cincinnati officials raised rates in the Over-the-Rhine district, extended hours for metered parking (including weekends), and stepped up enforcement. While Cleveland also raised its rates last year, the maximum hourly rate for parking meters is still half of Cincinnati’s ($1 compared to $2), and we do not charge on weekends. (This is where I break from Councilman Zach Reed on transportation policy.)

The other essential component of correcting parking policy in order to justify tax increases is to eliminate mandatory parking minimums. Because the imposition of excise taxes on parking lot area can generate a new source of revenue for local governments, this could give them a perverse incentive to actually increase the minimum parking requirements for private developers in order to capture additional funds. In order to address this, legislators need to eliminate mandatory parking minimums within their jurisdiction.

While Cincinnati officials have failed to do the latter – in fact, their minimum parking requirements continue to undermine development in the city – their decision to raise public parking prices has paid off. Yesterday, city officials announced that parking revenues will make up the single largest share of the FY2017 operating budget of the new Cincinnati Streetcar. Funds generated from parking fees will make up $2.2 million of the $4.2 million total budget. Clearly, Cleveland leaders don’t need to look to Australia or the United Kingdom for examples of cities funding transit on the back of parking, given that it’s happening just 250 miles south on I-71.

This approach – taxing a public bad (excess parking) to fund a public good (reliable public transit) – is at the heart of good public policy. It’s no different than taxing cigarette sales to fund smoking cessation and public health programs (not professional sports stadiums) or taxing carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants to fund clean energy. Cleveland should take the baton from Cincinnati and run with it.

Ohio won’t save GCRTA, so let’s tax parking to fund transit instead

rta healthline buses
rta healthline buses

RTA HealthLine buses in downtown Cleveland (courtesy of Cleveland.com).

One of the biggest stories in Northeast Ohio right now is the Greater Cleveland RTA’s budget shortfall. It’s probably because of the company I keep, but my Facebook and Twitter feeds have been inundated with posts, comments, and tweets about every new update and public meeting for the past several weeks.

It’s a big story. GCRTA has reported that, in order to balance its books, it needs to cut expenses by $7 million this year. CEO Joe Calabrese and his staff have proposed a suite of route cuts and fare increases to plug this hole. Options include raising the base fare from to $2.50 per ride from $2.25 currently, increasing paratransit fares to $3.50 from $2.25, and curtailing or eliminating bus service along 18 routes. Alternatively, the agency could maintain existing service and increase the normal fare to $2.75 per trip.

Rather than just approving some combination of these options, the GCRTA Board of Directors tabled this discussion at its December 2015 meeting, opting to hold a series of 15 public meetings around the county. The last of these hearings occurred on Wednesday, and the ball is now back in the Board’s hands.

If I had to wager, I would guess they’ll raise fares by $0.50 to minimize the service cuts. Keep in mind that Cleveland has already cut annual bus revenue miles by nearly 40% since 2006, the single largest decrease in the country, according to Jake Anbinder of the Transit Center. Given the nearly overwhelming opposition to some of these service cuts, making it that much harder to get around town seems pretty untenable.

In addition to hosting this litany of hearings, Mr. Calabrese testified before the Cleveland City Council Transportation on Wednesday. He came to distill the agency’s challenges, justify its plans, and hear feedback from the Committee members. For the most part, the tenor from the Council members was pretty standard – they all agreed GCRTA is in a tight spot, they opposed service cuts in their wards, and they pilloried the State of Ohio for not doing its part.

Enough ink has been spilled – including by me – on the sad state of public transit funding in this state, so I won’t belabor the issue. Suffice it to say, as I once did, that I’m not sure it would be possible for Ohio’s elected officials to care less about public transit if they tried. Hell, even if Ohio devoted every one of the $7.3 million it kicks in for public transit to GCRTA, that would barely be enough to paper over its budget hole. The state needs to fund transit, full stop.

We can’t depend on Ohio to fund transit

But, while I don’t like cutting service on the 81 to the Lakeview Terraces or raising paratransit fares, I found myself agreeing most with Councilman Zach Reed. It was strange. I rarely see eye-to-eye with Councilman Reed on transportation issues, but his comments were dead on. He called on local officials to disabuse themselves of the notion that Ohio is suddenly going to find religion on transit funding.

Instead, Councilman Reed broached a subject that most local officials have sidestepped – we need to increase local funding for transit. Currently, GCRTA gets around 60% of its funding from a 1% county sales tax assessed in 1970. But this tax generates far less revenue today than it did in 1970; population loss costs the agency nearly $68 million in funding each year. That could close this budget hole nearly 10 times over.

gcrta sales tax revenue

Sales tax revenue by year (courtesy of GCRTA).

Additionally, Councilman Reed was the only person to note another key detail – federal and state transit dollars come with strings attached, including the local match requirement. Local governments need to cough up 20% of the cost of a project in order to spend federal transit dollars. This issue has increasingly become a hurdle. According to ODOT’s transit needs study (see page 46 of PDF), the state is sitting on more than $21 million in transit funding that it cannot disperse due to a lack of local matching funds. We need more transit spending for Cuyahoga County from Cuyahoga County; there’s no way around it.

Granted, continually increasing taxes on a shrinking population to fill budget gaps is a recipe for disaster. But not all taxes are created equal. There are certain levers that officials can pull to help rectify social harms and raise funds at the same time. And since sprawl is among Cleveland’s most pressing issues, taxing land uses that promote it can be beneficial. So let’s tax parking to fund transit.

Cleveland already has a parking tax, but…

First, I’ll note that Cleveland already taxes parking.* In 1995, City Council approved an 8% sales tax on commercial parking transactions in the city. This tax raises roughly $10-11 million per year for the City’s coffers. Or it, would if Council hadn’t passed this tax as part of its plan to finance a new Browns stadium. Cleveland doesn’t actually see a dime of this money, as it just goes to pay off debt from bonds issued for FirstEnergy Stadium. Argle bargle.

The easy way to raise funds for transit would be to simply raise this existing tax. Compared to other cities with this sort of tax, Cleveland’s is relatively low. New York City, Miami, and Los Angeles impose taxes of 18.5%, 20%, and 25%, respectively. Pittsburgh, which has impressively progressive transportation policies, imposes a 50% tax. Cleveland could, say, double its tax to 16% – raising $10 million per year for transit – and remain on par with other cities.

Unfortunately, despite its ubiquity, this tax is flawed. Because it’s assessed on reported transactions, parking lot operators have an incentive to underreport their sales, something that has occurred in Cleveland. Additionally, it can have the unintended consequence of reducing the supply of paid parking and increasing the supply of free parking in city centers.

According to a study (PDF) from the Victoria Transport Policy Institute (VTPI), “it makes urban centers relatively less competitive compared with suburban locations where parking is unpriced. In this way, commercial parking taxes can increase total parking subsidies and sprawl.” Not only are we wasting the revenues from our parking tax to subsidize a football stadium, the tax itself may be contributing to urban sprawl. Argle bargle.

Taxing parking lots by surface area instead

What other options exist? A number of cities outside of the US – chiefly in Australia and Canada – take a different approach. They levy a tax on the total area of surface parking lots or on the total number of parking spaces. In this way, the tax generates a double dividend; it produces tax revenue while also driving down the demand for parking and reducing congestion.

Following the advice of a study from Eran Feitelson and Orit Rotem, I propose that we implement a tax on the surface area of private parking lots. But this tax would be imposed based on the square footage of each lot at ground level; this would ensure that a surface parking lot like those blighting the Warehouse District would have the same tax burden as a 4-level parking deck with a comparable surface area on each level. Not only would this create revenue and cut into parking demand, it would also push developers towards parking decks, as the effective tax per parking spot falls with each additional level added.

Moreover, the supply of free parking in the region would decrease, as developers would now have a greater motivation to recoup tax expenditures by charging. There is a legitimate risk that hiking up parking taxes could push people away from downtown or other districts within Cleveland. Accordingly, this policy should be implemented at the county level. Doing so would increase the cost of developing in suburban and exurban areas, relative to the city center, because the latter has an existing supply of parking decks and underground lots.

Because this would be applied countywide, it would be essentially a commuter tax imposed on both county residents and those people who live outside but enter the county to work, go to school, shop, see a sporting event, etc. This would help to address the types of equity concerns we face when dealing with similar taxes, like the Sin Tax.

Coincidentally, ODOT actually explored the idea of levying an annual tax on parking spaces to fund transit all the way back in 1993. The agency estimated (see page 20 of PDF) that this sort of tax could generate $187.3 million per year. If we adjust for inflation, that would be equal to $307 million in 2016 dollars. If we conservatively assume that a tax in Cuyahoga County could generate 10% of this revenue, that would still equal roughly $30 million per year.

Excess parking is a scourge for urban areas. It consumes valuable land, encourages driving and sprawl, contributes to air pollution and climate change, increases surface runoff, and harms water quality. On a good day, GCRTA struggles to compete and keep its budget balanced. Parking makes this challenge that much harder. So let’s try to remedy our incentives and tax parking to fund transit.

 

*Credit to Cleveland real estate lawyer and part-time blogger Christian Carson, whose 2014 post helped put me onto this idea.

What impact will climate change have on air quality?

sammis power plant
sammis power plant

The Sammis Power Plant near Steubenville, Ohio, which the PUCO agreed to allow FirstEnergy to continue operating through 2024 on the backs of ratepayers (courtesy of EarthJustice).

Though it’s hardly a secret that I view climate change as the preeminent issue of this generation, I usually try to bring some sobriety to the apocalyptic current that some of my fellow climate hawks bring to the table. Whether it’s casting a skeptical eye on the hype about climate change and conflict or challenging the use of the term “climate refugee,” I try to stay fairly level headed.

So it would seem reasonable that I would be somewhat wary of the hype surrounding the major new report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program on the public health impacts of climate change. I mean, as Kyle Feldscher of the Washington Examiner tweeted, somewhat snarkily,

But, here’s the thing, sometimes when Chicken Little screams that the sky is falling, you really do need to look up. And that’s the case with climate change. As this report lays out in tremendous detail, the public health implications of inaction are staggering, whether it’s the estimated 11,000 additional deaths per year from heat-related mortality, an increase in vector- and water-borne illnesses, or a spike in the frequency and intensity of disasters, things are going to suck unless we do something like yesterday.

Importantly, due to the lengthy atmospheric lifetimes of greenhouse gases (GHG), particularly CO2, some of these impacts are already baked into the cake. While the report makes it clear that we can stave off the worst effects on public health by taking immediate action to curb GHG emissions, the fact remains that we will inevitably have to adapt to that which we cannot mitigate and suffer that which we cannot adapt to. But since most of my focus is on air quality issues these days, I wanted to take a closer look at that chapter in the report.

Tracing improvements in air quality

First, it’s crucial that we note how much air quality has improved in the United States since the passage of the 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA). According to the U.S. EPA, ambient levels of the six criteria air pollutants fell by a combined 63% from 1980 to 2014, including an astounding 99% for lead. All this occurred even as GDP grew by 147%.

This trend has paid significant dividends for Northeast Ohio. In Cleveland, for instance, the 3-year average for carbon monoxide (CO) from 1972-1974 was 17.3 parts per billion (ppb), well in excess of the 10 ppb standard. From 2012-2014, this value had fallen to just 4.3 ppb, a 75% decrease. Back in 1978, the 3-year average level of sulfur dioxide (SO2), which is generated largely from burning coal, stood at a mind boggling 497 ppb. In 2014, that level was down to 71 ppb, below the EPA’s 75 ppb standard.

The benefits of this dramatic improvement in air quality have been staggering. One study from the EPA found that, by 2020, the 1990 CAAA will prevent 230,000 premature deaths and generate benefits totalling $2 trillion. According to renowned University of Chicago economist Michael Greenstone, the 1970 CAAA extended the life expectancy of the average American by 1.6 years, totalling more than 336 million additional life-years. Here in Cleveland, we live, on average, 2.3 years longer because of this landmark piece of legislation.

But, as I’ve discussed before, a lot of people seem to think that these numbers mean we’ve moved beyond air pollution, that it’s something we’ve relegated to the past. That’s clearly not the case, given that a 2013 study estimated air pollution led to more than 200,000 premature deaths in 2005. In Cleveland, that number was 1,363, with the majority (62%) of deaths coming from electricity generation (466) and transportation (384). Clearly we have a long way to go, and incremental improvements in air quality will do a lot to winnow this number down further.

Will climate change affect this trend?

But that’s where climate change comes into play. The two primary bogeymen in the world of air quality are ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The formation of both of these pollutants depends heavily on meteorological conditions, particularly the former. When the conditions are right, ozone and PM2.5 levels can spike, with serious consequences for anyone who breathes air.

Now, obviously the most important thing that environmental officials can do is work to reduce emissions of ozone precursors, along with direct PM2.5 and its precursors. If there are simply fewer nitrogen oxide (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOCs) molecules floating around, there will inevitably be less ozone in the air.

And this is true – to a point. That’s why the EPA estimates that, thanks to existing regulations like the controversial Mercury and Air Toxics Standard (MATS) and the Tier 3 Vehicle Emissions standard, ozone and PM2.5 levels will continue to decline. The agency projects, for instance, that ozone levels in Cuyahoga County will fall to 59 ppb in 2025 from 75 ppb currently.

Unfortunately, this fails to account for the impacts of climate change. Global warming is likely to make the types of meteorological conditions conducive to ozone formation – hot, still summer weather – considerably more common going forward. As the report’s authors note, “consequently, attaining national air quality standards for ground-level ozone will also be more difficult, as climate changes offset some of the improvements that would otherwise be expected from emissions reductions.”

To illustrate this effect, let’s look at recent history in Cleveland. From 2008 (when the EPA finalized its 75 ppb standard) through 2011, there were an average of 9.5 days each year when ozone levels exceeded the standard. This number plummeted further during the previous two mild summers, with 1 day and 3 days in 2014 and 2015, respectively. But then there’s 2012, the hottest year on record in the region. During that summer, we had 28 exceedance days, the highest number since 2002.

What will climate change’s impact be on air quality?

So what, exactly, does the report project? Well, it uses data from a 2015 paper by a group of EPA scientists that aims to “quantify and monetize the climate penalty” from higher ozone levels tied to climate change through 2030. Because the effects of climate change on PM2.5 are so difficult to suss out, the report focuses exclusively on ozone.

The authors use two global climate change scenarios, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) to estimate the effects. RCP 8.5 is a worst case scenario, while RCP 6.0 is slightly less pessimistic model that assumes we will take some action to curb emissions.

These models allow them to estimate the number of climate change-attributable, ozone-related premature deaths and illnesses in the US. While RCP 6.0 leads to somewhere between 37 and 170 premature deaths each year, RCP 8.5 could generate 420 to 1,900 additional early deaths. The authors find that “the economic value of these adverse outcomes ranges from $320 million to $1.4 billion for the RCP 6.0 scenario and from $3.6 to $15 billion for the RCP 8.5 scenario.”

climate change ozone impacts

The projected impacts of climate change on ozone levels and ozone-related mortality in the US for RCP 6.5 and RCP 8.0 (courtesy of Fann et al.)

These health impacts will not be distributed evenly, as the map above shows. Here the Midwest, particularly along the Great Lakes, significant global warming could drive ozone levels up by more than 5 ppb leading to tens or dozens of additional deaths. These findings are similar to those from a 2007 study (PDF) by Michelle Bell et al. in the journal Climatic Change. This study examined the impact of significant climate change on ambient ozone levels in 50 US cities by 2050. Bell et al. concluded that ambient summertime ozone levels would jump by 4.4 ppb, and every city studied would see an increase in the number of exceedance days by 2050. The average city would experience 5.5 more exceedance days per year, a 68% increase compared to the 1990s, while Cleveland could see a spike of 140%, from 7.5 to 18 days per year. The study uses the 1997 ozone standard of 85 ppb, meaning that the number of exceedances would likely be much higher for the current 2015 standard of 70 ppb. All told, ozone-related mortality was projected to increase 0.11-0.27%.

While this seems relatively insignificant, I should note that ozone is not a major cause of air pollution-related death here. If climate change was to have comparable impacts on particle pollution levels, these costs would increase by orders of magnitude. Unfortunately, this remains a real possibility. One study estimates that, while global PM2.5 concentrations may fall by up to 18%, they could increase by anywhere from 1 to 4 micrograms per cubic meter in the eastern US.

Ultimately, it’s not the projected number of additional deaths or asthma exacerbations that matters. What this report shows is that we have done an excellent job of cutting levels of harmful air pollutants, even as we increased emissions of a seemingly harmful one – CO2. But now, unless we take immediate action to slash the latter, all our great work on the former is at risk.

There’s no congestion in Cleveland, so why are we adding capacity?

480-271 junction
480-271 junction

The junction of Interstates 480 and 271 near Warrensville Heights (courtesy of Google Maps).

Most people probably recognize TomTom as a company that manufactures and sells GPS units and fitness trackers. But developing these tools has allowed the company to develop considerable information regarding road networks and traffic conditions worldwide. TomTom uses these data to produce its annual Traffic Index, and the firm released its much awaited 2015 edition of the report earlier this week.

The report includes a wide array of information on congestion across the globe, from the amount of time that drivers spend in traffic to the individual day in 2015 when congestion was worst in each city. Many of the cities notorious for their soul crushing congestion topped the rankings, with Mexico City taking over first place from Istanbul, which fell to third behind new entrant Bangkok. Surprising no one, Los Angeles has the worst traffic in the United States, coming in 10th. Brazil, which has some of the worst gridlock in the world, had more cities in the top 10 than any other country. Rio, Salvador, and Recife ranked fourth, seventh, and eighth respectively.

The pros and cons of congestion for cities

TomTom ranks cities using a metric it terms “congestion level.” It defines this variable as the “increase in overall travel times when compared to a Free Flow situation.” In other words, it indicates how much longer a given trip will take in a city, due to congestion, compared to a situation in which the flow of traffic was completely unobstructed. In Mexico City, for example, traffic ensures that the average trip takes 59% longer than it would otherwise. Capitalinos spend 219 hours – more than 9 full days – per year waiting in traffic.

Sitting in traffic sucks. There’s no question about that. It consumes time people could spend doing something more productive or fulfilling, it wastes substantial amounts of fuel,  exacerbates air pollution, interrupts economic output, and discourages people from entering congested areas. As Yogi Berra famously quipped, “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.”

But, congestion also hints that a city is succeeding. If a lot of people are trying to get into and around your city, that probably indicates that the city is doing well – at least up to a certain threshold. It’s when your roads are totally empty and you can get around town without tapping the brake that you should be worried.

cleveland congestion level history

Cleveland’s congestion level history from 2008 to 2016 (courtesy of TomTom).

Congestion? What congestion?

If you ask the average commuter in Greater Cleveland, s/he is likely to complain that we have issues with traffic. After all, many of our major interstates, particularly the Innerbelt, have been under construction for years now. This constant construction, combined with the ballyhooed revival of downtown must be making the streets more crowded, right?

LOL. The TomTom index ranked 174 cities based upon their respective levels of congestion. Cleveland came in 168th with a congestion level of just 11%. In other words, of the 174 cities for which TomTom had traffic data, just 7 of them have less traffic than Cleveland. What’s more, traffic actually eased somewhat from 2014 to 2015, falling from 12%. In the eight years that TomTom has been publishing its index, Cleveland has had congestion levels of 11% six times and 12% twice. That’s it.

According to the report, travel times for the average Cleveland commuter increase by just 20% and 25% during our morning and evening “rush hours,” respectively. The single worst hour of the week for travelers is 5:00-6:00pm Wednesdays, when the congestion index tops out at 27%. For the sake of comparison, there are 78 cities that have an average congestion level of 27% or more.

Expanding capacity to solve a nonexistent congestion problem

Given the fact that Cleveland has little, if any, traffic problems, one would expect our local and state transportation planners to avoid adding capacity. We clearly have enough roads as it is.

And this is exactly NOACA has done. The NOACA Board of Directors officially adopted a “fix it first” policy last September, indicating that it would prioritize funding to repairing our existing road network, rather than adding to it. Every lane mile that we add simply increases our financial liabilities, because it’s extra pavement to lay, repair, clear from snow and ice, etc.

There have been some rumors floating around the interwebs that ODOT would adopt a similar policy. This would be a huge deal, albeit one reportedly driven solely by financial realities, as opposed to enlightened self-interest. And yet, when the agency announced $2.1 billion in road and bridge projects it plans to complete this year, the list included plans to widen three separate freeways in Greater Cleveland:  I-271, I-77, and I-76/77. Granted, these projects have been in the works for a long time, and it was highly unlikely they’d be scrapped, regardless of whether or not we really need them. It is what it is.

Yet, we know that widening urban highways has directly contributed to the sprawl and population loss that has plagued Cleveland for 50 years. In a 2007 study, Brown University economist Nathaniel Baum-Snow concluded that every new highway that passes through a center city cut its population by 18%. According to Baum-Snow, “had the interstate highway system not been built, instead of declining by 17 percent, aggregate central city population would have grown by 8 percent” from 1950-1990.

We have entirely too much pavement in this region. NOACA (PDF) has indicated that there are 670,795,906 square feet of federal aid roadways in Northeast Ohio. That’s equal to just over 24 square miles of pavement, roughly the size of the City of Strongsville. But here we are again, adding capacity, even as this pavement falls into disrepair. NOACA estimates that 46% of the region’s pavement falls short of being in a state of good repair. The cost of just bringing that roughly 308 million square feet of pavement into good repair is somewhere on the order of $1 billion.

But hey, that’s for another day! Why fix what we already have when we can widen highways so that “motorists [who] are putting on make-up or even shaving” don’t have to worry about keeping their eyes on the road. That’s just good public policy.